Fixed-time descriptive statistics underestimate extremes of epidemic curve ensembles

Jonas Juul; Kaare  Græsbøll; Lasse Engbo Christiansen; Sune Lehmann

doi:10.1038/s41567-020-01121-y

Fixed-time descriptive statistics underestimate extremes of epidemic curve ensembles

Jonas Juul
, Kaare Græsbøll
, Lasse Engbo Christiansen
, Sune Lehmann

Technical University of Denmark

Research output: Journal Article or Conference Article in Journal › Comment/debate › Research › peer-review

Abstract

The uncertainty associated with epidemic forecasts is often simulated with ensembles of epidemic trajectories based on combinations of parameters. We show that the standard approach for summarizing such ensembles systematically suppresses critical epidemiological information.

Original language	English
Journal	Nature Physics
Volume	17
Pages (from-to)	5-8
Number of pages	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41567-020-01121-y
Publication status	Published - 8 Dec 2020
Externally published	Yes

Keywords

Complex networks
Computational science
SARS-CoV-2
Statistics

Access to Document

10.1038/s41567-020-01121-y

Cite this

@article{d4e12f943d6c4c8891ec13bb91abd2c2,

title = "Fixed-time descriptive statistics underestimate extremes of epidemic curve ensembles",

abstract = "The uncertainty associated with epidemic forecasts is often simulated with ensembles of epidemic trajectories based on combinations of parameters. We show that the standard approach for summarizing such ensembles systematically suppresses critical epidemiological information.",

keywords = "Complex networks, Computational science, SARS-CoV-2, Statistics",

author = "Jonas Juul and Kaare Gr{\ae}sb{\o}ll and Christiansen, \{Lasse Engbo\} and Sune Lehmann",

year = "2020",

month = dec,

day = "8",

doi = "10.1038/s41567-020-01121-y",

language = "English",

volume = "17",

pages = "5--8",

journal = "Nature Physics",

issn = "1745-2481",

publisher = "Springer",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Fixed-time descriptive statistics underestimate extremes of epidemic curve ensembles

AU - Juul, Jonas

AU - Græsbøll, Kaare

AU - Christiansen, Lasse Engbo

AU - Lehmann, Sune

PY - 2020/12/8

Y1 - 2020/12/8

N2 - The uncertainty associated with epidemic forecasts is often simulated with ensembles of epidemic trajectories based on combinations of parameters. We show that the standard approach for summarizing such ensembles systematically suppresses critical epidemiological information.

AB - The uncertainty associated with epidemic forecasts is often simulated with ensembles of epidemic trajectories based on combinations of parameters. We show that the standard approach for summarizing such ensembles systematically suppresses critical epidemiological information.

KW - Complex networks

KW - Computational science

KW - SARS-CoV-2

KW - Statistics

U2 - 10.1038/s41567-020-01121-y

DO - 10.1038/s41567-020-01121-y

M3 - Comment/debate

SN - 1745-2481

VL - 17

SP - 5

EP - 8

JO - Nature Physics

JF - Nature Physics

ER -

Fixed-time descriptive statistics underestimate extremes of epidemic curve ensembles

Abstract

Keywords

Access to Document

Fingerprint

Cite this