Fixed-time descriptive statistics underestimate extremes of epidemic curve ensembles

Jonas Juul; Kaare  Græsbøll; Lasse Engbo Christiansen; Sune Lehmann

doi:10.1038/s41567-020-01121-y

Fixed-time descriptive statistics underestimate extremes of epidemic curve ensembles

Jonas Juul, Kaare Græsbøll, Lasse Engbo Christiansen, Sune Lehmann

Danmarks Tekniske Universitet

Publikation: Artikel i tidsskrift og konference artikel i tidsskrift › Kommentar/debat › Forskning › peer review

Abstract

The uncertainty associated with epidemic forecasts is often simulated with ensembles of epidemic trajectories based on combinations of parameters. We show that the standard approach for summarizing such ensembles systematically suppresses critical epidemiological information.

Originalsprog	Engelsk
Tidsskrift	Nature Physics
Vol/bind	17
Sider (fra-til)	5-8
Antal sider	3
DOI	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41567-020-01121-y
Status	Udgivet - 8 dec. 2020
Udgivet eksternt	Ja

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10.1038/s41567-020-01121-y

Citationsformater

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title = "Fixed-time descriptive statistics underestimate extremes of epidemic curve ensembles",

abstract = "The uncertainty associated with epidemic forecasts is often simulated with ensembles of epidemic trajectories based on combinations of parameters. We show that the standard approach for summarizing such ensembles systematically suppresses critical epidemiological information.",

keywords = "Complex networks, Computational science, SARS-CoV-2, Statistics",

author = "Jonas Juul and Kaare Gr{\ae}sb{\o}ll and Christiansen, {Lasse Engbo} and Sune Lehmann",

year = "2020",

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doi = "10.1038/s41567-020-01121-y",

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T1 - Fixed-time descriptive statistics underestimate extremes of epidemic curve ensembles

AU - Juul, Jonas

AU - Græsbøll, Kaare

AU - Christiansen, Lasse Engbo

AU - Lehmann, Sune

PY - 2020/12/8

Y1 - 2020/12/8

N2 - The uncertainty associated with epidemic forecasts is often simulated with ensembles of epidemic trajectories based on combinations of parameters. We show that the standard approach for summarizing such ensembles systematically suppresses critical epidemiological information.

AB - The uncertainty associated with epidemic forecasts is often simulated with ensembles of epidemic trajectories based on combinations of parameters. We show that the standard approach for summarizing such ensembles systematically suppresses critical epidemiological information.

KW - Complex networks

KW - Computational science

KW - SARS-CoV-2

KW - Statistics

U2 - 10.1038/s41567-020-01121-y

DO - 10.1038/s41567-020-01121-y

M3 - Comment/debate

VL - 17

SP - 5

EP - 8

JO - Nature Physics

JF - Nature Physics

ER -

Fixed-time descriptive statistics underestimate extremes of epidemic curve ensembles

Abstract

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